Tournament adoption covers every GD05-102 printing; its effect on this printing’s price is unproven. Sold volume and listing supply are not connected. Additional research feeds are shown above.
No valid market price; gaps preserved: 2026-07-24
Historical training examples are available, but missing exact recent-price dates prevent a current estimate.
7-day walk-forward backtest
Model
Test windows
MAE (USD)
Unchanged-price MAE
RMSE (USD)
MAE improvement
Price momentum
5
$0.42
$0.23
$0.54
-81.3%
Price + Japan tournaments
0
—
—
—
—
Price + global tournament adoption
0
—
—
—
—
Price + official mentions
0
—
—
—
—
Price + community mentions
0
—
—
—
—
MAE is average absolute error; RMSE penalizes large misses. Negative improvement means worse than unchanged price. Each baseline uses that model’s exact test dates.
Price + global tournament adoption: Awaiting enough first-seen observations and matured price outcomes; not used in the displayed estimate.
Price + official mentions: Awaiting enough first-seen observations and matured price outcomes; not used in the displayed estimate.
Price + community mentions: Awaiting enough first-seen observations and matured price outcomes; not used in the displayed estimate.
Research model’s next 7-day estimate (unvalidated): — · Unchanged-price baseline: $3.52. No uncalibrated rise probability is shown.
Method and per-window results
Ridge regression with fixed penalty 1. Each fold trains on at least 14 completed seven-day outcomes available at that origin. Scaling uses training data only. Tournament signals lag one day and expire after two additional days. Evaluation windows are seven days apart; missing exact-date prices are not interpolated.
Model / origin
Target date
Training outcomes through
Predicted
Actual
Baseline
Price momentum / 2026-08-21
2026-08-28
2026-08-21 (14)
$4.10
$4.99
$5.06
Price momentum / 2026-08-28
2026-09-04
2026-08-28 (21)
$4.53
$4.60
$4.99
Price momentum / 2026-09-04
2026-09-11
2026-09-04 (28)
$4.27
$4.96
$4.60
Price momentum / 2026-09-11
2026-09-18
2026-09-11 (35)
$5.22
$4.79
$4.96
Price momentum / 2026-09-18
2026-09-25
2026-09-18 (42)
$4.64
$4.63
$4.79
TCG BENCH / RESEARCH ASSISTANT
Make sense of the evidence.
Answers use this printing’s observed prices and backtest, with a calculator for arithmetic.
Manual what-if inputs, not observed signals. These sliders do not change the backtest above. Tournament change uses percentage points; other changes use percent.
03 / EXPLAINABILITY
What is moving the model?
Relevant mention velocity+0.0 pts
Top-four inclusion change+0.0 pts
Sold-volume change+0.0 pts
Active-listing supply change+0.0 pts
04 / VALIDATION
Scenario method
This sandbox retains fixed illustrative weights: mentions 0.08, tournament adoption 0.12, volume 0.10 and supply −0.07. Its midpoint and spread are assumptions, not outputs from the fitted research model above.
Observed data and measured performance are listed above. Social, volume and supply inputs here are manual assumptions.